InQuest Productions, LLC.

Understanding and Designing Solutions for Complicated and Complex Systems
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  • Why should we worry about educating other people's children?

    It’s in our rational self interest to do so. $1 on preschool generates >$3 of economic benefit, and >$16 if you consider impact on crime, etc. Even better, your educational attainment directly impacts your lifetime earnings, but held constant you’ll do better if your metropolitan area has better educated people. The total benefit to your community from your education is greater than your personal benefit. 

    The hard part: the return on investment is generational, which exceeds the tenure of governors and legislators. Misaligned timing of costs and benefits requires them to do what is all but out of reach for businesses: take the long view.

    • 2 weeks ago
    • #education
  • Products, Services, Solutions

     Product people tend to think of solutions as integration glue between products, which seems backwards and upside down to me. Solutions are better thought of as Intellectual Property (IP) that solves meaningful customer problems with reduced risk and complexity. Solution IP is more valuable than product IP—products are just components of the solution, and well designed solutions enable substituting alternative products confidently. That’s not obviously in the interest of product teams unless they accept that customers already have products and rip-and-replace is a hard sell—you need to fit in.

    System integrators and services vendors should get this, but typically their business models require first winning the deal and then spending the customer’s money, which makes it hard to invest up-front in repeatable (well-designed, hardened, maintainable) solution IP.

    The result: an industry rife with shelfware and project change orders, manifestations of customers bearing the risk. 

    I think this better explains the challenges faced by the traditional enterprise IT market than blaming the sales force, or data, or the cloud.

    Oh, and Cloud, Big Data, SasS, Mobile Apps, and the like shift the burden, risks, and complexity around, but still require solution IP to solve real customer needs.

    • 1 month ago
    • #solutions
    • #cloud
    • #IT
  • How One Spoof Video Symbolizes The Energy And Brashness Of OpenStack, A Rising Cloud Power | TechCrunch

    OpenStack is as much a stack as is Linux or Java. 

    An unassailable statement given that we have completely lost the thread. A “stack” defines a number of layers, where layers interact through defined interfaces. I confess I’ve never seen one, other than maybe the first few layers in the network stack (1-3; 4-7 seem seriously squishy). What is the standard interface supported by KVM, Xen, VMware, and Microsoft’s? How much coupling exists between whatever lives above any of these and what’s below? But the initial claim holds—how much do I have to address to handle multiple Linux distros? How real is the right-once-run-anywhere Java promise?

    • 1 month ago
    • #architecture
  • Solving the World’s Problems Differently (by theRSAorg)

    We have more and more highly scaled collaborative venues than in the past. They can provide routes around breakdowns within and between traditional structures. To be seen is how resilient they are to conflict with and cooption by established institutions, how prone to breakdowns themselves, how much impact they can have, and how much attention they can sustain.

    Left to the reader is how to select the best venues for pursuing an issue. Oh, and figuring out how to bring its power to bear…

    Source: youtube.com
    • 1 month ago
  • Why Improving Education Doesn’t

    US education spending runs around $1T a year, roughly 7% of GDP, underscoring the high importance we place on it. In a field otherwise characterized by widespread disagreement virtually everyone agrees on one thing: this massive investment produces unacceptable results. Delivery of education competes for funding with education reform and improvement initiatives. Delivery suffers, the improvement efforts produce disappointing results, spawning new improvement programs and more pressure on delivery.

    Dissatisfaction with education outcomes and reform efforts are nothing new. US Education has been at Level Orange for 50 years and more. After lots of arguments, lots of theories, experiments, programs, campaigns, and evaluations we’re more or less where we started across a broad range of measures.

    Why is education so resistant to improvement? It’s not because we’re evil or stupid. The problem is complexity.

    Education is a complex domain. Outcomes depend on the actions of a huge number of people, each of whom has their own intentions, motivations, and desires. These change frequently and unpredictably, influenced by the behaviors of each other and events that have little or no direct relationship to education concerns. How will people react to a given change? The uncertainty of answering this question is intrinsic and unavoidable.

    Rather than a line of dominoes, where one event causes exactly one event and itself results from one event, many events might contribute to one event, which in turn might influence many other events, connected in a network of self-adapting feedback loops. As a result cause and effect are intrinsically difficult to understand in complex systems.

    These patterns of interactions might eventually settle down into what appears as a stable system that produces expected outputs for given inputs, but frequently the system is “metastable,” where a small change in inputs can make large changes in overall behavior, producing different outputs or perhaps becoming highly unstable, resulting in hysteresis (wild fluctuations), runaway, or collapse. Small changes can create large scale shifts in behavior, and since there are fewer better states than worse ones, these large shifts are often for the worse. They also tend to be one-way, lacking an ‘undo’ button, making it impossible to return to the previous state.

    As a result, when we try to improve education outcomes we’re shooting in the dark, no matter how confidently we advocate our approach. Particularly when the initiative is large scale and driven top-down.

    We’ve learned a few valuable tricks to help us deal with large, complicated systems. One of the most important is carving the system up into a number of smaller subsystems. For example, when we design a car we break the work down into power train, electrical, suspension, and so on. Bringing them all together into an automobile design requires making a series of choices that generate constraints and requirements for each subsystem, but we have confidence that bringing them together will provide a complete transportation solution.

    Similarly we can factor a complex system into a number of subsystems. But it’s far harder to define those subdomains as cleanly for complex systems as we can for simple and even complicated ones. We lack the ability to describe the complete system in a way that assures subsystems don’t overlap in some cases and leave gaps in others.

    The education system varies widely, with no broadly adopted design specifying modular subsystems and a standard recipe for connecting the pieces. Lacking clear boundaries and defined interaction patterns generates confusion, redundancies, breakdowns in handoffs between subsystems, and guarantees good-faith efforts unintentionally working at cross purposes.

    The varieties of approaches means that expertise in one subdomain doesn’t necessarily transfer well to similar-but-subtly different subdomains. Experiments are difficult to replicate and learnings hard to share. 

    In the face of these challenges despair seems justifiable, but all is not lost. In many domains of human endeavor progress depends on sophisticated design insights, even in the face of complexity. An abstract model of the system enables reasoning about it, and running simulations to gain insight into the potential impacts of proposed changes. It allows identifying dependencies across subdomains, potentially addressing non-obvious constraints that would negatively impact an otherwise beneficial change. It emphasizes the divergent perspectives on whether a prospective outcome would be beneficial or harmful. It enables translating a given solution to the varying circumstances across education subdomains (geographic, economic, target student population, etc.).

    Attempting to apply traditional design methods to large complex domains fail in a few typical patterns. Their emphasis on understanding processes is incompatible with domains characterized by lightly constrained participants. The descriptive focus on how things are done bogs down under the volume and the variety of actions taken. A detailed description of a subdomain takes inordinate effort to create, additional effort to adapt for each slightly different instance, and provides little leverage independent of designs for adjacent subdomains. Only when the complete system is exhaustively described can the design be used, but the required up-front investment in time and effort before achieving any useful result virtually guarantees the design will never be completed.

    A useful design approach must provide value quickly, allow a balance between breadth-first and depth-first analysis, and provide incremental value for incremental investment.

    To accomplish this we’ve developed a design method that focuses on what and why, not how, which provides insight without bogging down in details. It places particular emphasis on information, asking this question: “What information is essential for resolving a particular situation?” It codifies interactions between subdomains by identifying the authoritative source for each information element, defining the required exchanges between subdomains. It provides for technology-independent descriptions that map to more detailed designs by applying choices and constraints, providing guidance to applying technology without mandating it.

    Applying this design method to the education domain makes improving education more tractable. We’ll explore that in more detail in subsequent posts.

    • 2 months ago
  • Evolution and Adaptive Systems

    My thinking about design dates back to the late 60s and early 70s. The Whole Earth Catalog played for me then the role the Internet plays for many today—a window into a broader and richer world than my small town. Primarily through books by Gregory Bateson discussed in the WEC two aspects of biology captured my interest: evolution and adaptive/emergent systems. Those ideas still shape my thinking on design, though I focus on technology and collaborative organizations rather than organisms and biological ecosystems.
     
    Astounding design power results from combining variation and selection through countless generations. Trying things, tossing out the failures, trying more variations on the successes, ad infinitum, produces designs that work. You can see examples of this power in this TED talk (http://www.ted.com/talks/tim_harford.html). The complexity of biological organisms demonstrates the design power resulting from variation and selection, through trial and error.
     
    Adaptive, self-regulating systems persist through different mechanisms. There is no learning per se—there is no persistent state akin to the role that genes play in evolution. Instead there are positive and negative feedback loops that produce meta-stable systems. These complex systems adapt, they change as internal and external forces impact the whole, but the adaptations are best understood as the net impact of various feedback loops. They run the risk of runaway, of total system collapse, with relatively few potentially stable states.
     
    Evolution and adaptive systems offer significant insights into the complexity and richness of both species and ecosystems without any goal-directed controlling mechanism. Self-aware systems (humans, for example), can establish goals, objectives, intents, and plans to achieve them, to create goal-directed systems. I reason about human institutions, including organizations and enterprises, as such goal-directed systems, and technology as a mechanism intended to help fulfill these goals.
     
    My experience in business and technology highlights how difficult it is to create, operate, and adapt such systems. These challenges are not new, and many methods have been defined to address them. My perspective, influenced by my long term interest in biology, is that a new approach is necessary.
     
    I focus primarily on the challenge of the capturing the design and modeling adaptations of existing goal-directed systems, but of course manifesting a new design as a functioning system presents unique challenges. Descriptions of existing systems that over-simplify provide limited value, and designs that can’t be translated into implementations provide even less. As a result design itself must be more than a description, it must define a plan that captures both what it is and how to instantiate it.
     
    If you want a new home you need the property, building materials, the right tools, the right skills, and of course the financial resources needed to bring these together. You also need a blueprint that captures a design that satisfies your housing goals. You’ll likely also require approval from the relevant government entities. These all have to come together in a plan that addresses all relevant concerns, that brings the required resources together effectively (produces the right house) and efficiently (minimizes waste of resources and energy). This requires a plan that coordinates the activities—you don’t want to assemble the plumbing before the framing—and assures that the information needed for the relevant activities is available when and where it’s required.
     
    Enterprises exert significant effort to build such plans. We capture our goals and objectives, we define an organization structure that subdivides the required activities, frequently grouping similar skill sets into functions, with some more-or-less formal design of the sequencing of work (the business process). These descriptions are difficult to generate. We struggle to define our goals with adequate rigor to assure that our plan will satisfy them. As we subdivide the work we encounter overlaps, resulting in duplication (producing waste) and confusion (risking ineffectiveness). Defining the process rigorously is tedious and complex, with descriptions either too generic to implement or overly detailed and rigid, making it difficult or impossible to handle variations and exceptions. As a result our approach to planning and the resulting plans tend to be spotty, incomplete, and uneven.
     
    Given this how is it that complex organizations continue to execute more or less successfully? The best explanation tends to be viewing them as demonstrating the same type of meta-stable behavior exhibited by adaptive systems: the design is emergent, is the result of trial and error (variation/selection), and is meta-stable (at risk of collapse if internal or external changes perturb the currently balanced feedback loops). 
     
    This situation makes implementing intentional changes very difficult. The lack of a comprehensive, accurate systemic description makes it hard to understand how things work and the implications of proposed changes. The sensitivity to disruption risks unintentionally causing the institution to collapse.
     
    Evolution and adaptive systems can help us understand existing businesses and provide us important insights into building new ones. Agile methods highlight the advantages of quickly testing new designs, of applying selection frequently, rather than expending a lot of effort without assuring that we’re actually improving things. Understanding the reinforcing nature of feedback loops help us understand many business failures. But blindly depending on these mechanisms abdicates our responsibility for improving the outcomes of our institutions.
     
    A highly abstract description of the challenge is this: create a plan that resolves a situation while satisfying specific goals. A situation that requires resolution includes context (information that’s relevant to identifying and resolving the situation), a event that precipitates the need to resolve the situation, and a description of the desired resolution (what must be true for the situation to be considered resolved). A plan describes the activities required to resolve the situation.
     
    Generating a good plan (one that is richly descriptive, rigorous, not overly rigid, can be understood by stakeholders, that is effective, and efficient, that can be adapted as needed, and that allows problems to be identified and addressed) requires eliciting from domain experts (people that understand the issues and concerns relevant to resolving the situation) the required knowledge. But those experts lack a powerful systemic description themselves. Their expertise is typically limited to their specific areas of responsibility, and their understanding of how they fit into the bigger picture overly concrete and specific. 
     
    Transforming expertise of the relevant domain experts into a plan requires a powerful method itself applied expertly. I’ll describe a new design method that generates such plans next.

    • 2 months ago
  • Why Organizations?

    “Organizations exist only for one purpose: to help people reach ends together that they couldn’t achieve individually.”
    ~Robert H. Waterman~

    Humans band together to accomplish what can’t be done individually. We are social animals. Initially the selfishness of our genes encouraged bonding together with our immediate family. Our ancestors soon found advantage in gathering into tribes for common defense, from rogue individuals and other tribes. Over time tribes gave way to nations, and expectations expanded from security to enforcement of laws and on to encouraging the general welfare. Non-governmental organizations address aspects of the general welfare not taken on otherwise by governments. After millenia of cultural learning we’ve developed enough confidence to collaborate voluntarily with others that share interests, beliefs, or characteristics, even when these commonalities are simply contingent.

    In the economic world organizations provide scale, capacity, and risk mitigation beyond that of a sole proprietor, separating ownership, day-to-day management, and labor, allowing changes to how these roles bind to specific individuals without disrupting the persistence of the business.

    As a result many of us spend much of our lives directly participating in organizations, and all of us interact with them directly and indirectly more or less constantly. Perhaps a few people struggle to disengage from any group interactions and live fully independent lives with only person-to-person relationships, but the challenge is so great and the value of working together so high that we mostly experience such individualists through fiction.

    Given the central nature of organizations in human experience many assume that at least private organizations are effective (fulfill their intended purpose) and efficient (produce results with minimum waste of time, effort, energy, and cost). My personal experience leads me to the opposite conclusion—virtually all human organizations are highly ineffective and inefficient. The root causes do not lend themselves to simple fixes, but the good news is even small improvements can provide major benefits, for the same reason that replacing a 3 miles-per-gallon vehicle with a 9 MPG one wins big when you shift to a gallons per mile PoV. 

    We have a lot of headroom, so let’s get busy.

    • 2 months ago
  • The Secret To Fixing Bad Schools - NYTimes.com

    It sounds like a great school, but I’ll be darned if I can find the ‘secret’ or the ‘nationwide strategy.’ Preschool, instructional core, thinkers not test-takers, simulacrum of an extended family, strong leadership, pride and respect, raising expectations, lack of pizazz, evidence-based curriculum, teaching in native tongue, ….

    • 3 months ago
    • #education
  • The Youth Unemployment Crisis: A Fix that Works and Pays for Itself | The Business Desk with Paul Solman | PBS NewsHour | PBS

    Why is apprenticing so effective in Germany, Switzerland, and Austria (and increasingly elsewhere), but all-but-irrelevant in the US? Differences in regulations, trade unions, manufacturing base, and culture seem likely factors, but it’s hard to sort out what’s real and what’s interpretation to fit preexisting theory. Offering kids a path to a skilled future seems like a good idea. Creating such a path requires an approach that addresses the systemic complexities…

    • 3 months ago
    • #education
  • Valuable talk on why non-school factors dominate education outcomes and what to do about it….

    Think faster focus better and remember moreRewiring our brain to stay younger… (by GoogleTechTalks)

    Source: youtube.com
    • 3 months ago
    • #education
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